Silicon Valley investor and PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel has articulated a somber perspective on global population decline, asserting that current fertility rates, universally below the replacement level in many regions, signify a deeper societal malaise. Thiel, known for his contrarian views, suggests this demographic shift is intrinsically linked to a pervasive sense of stagnation and pessimism about the future, rather than being amenable to simple policy interventions.
In a recent social media post, Thiel stated, > “I think there is something very odd about a world in which people are not reproducing themselves. It’s probably somehow entangled with the stagnation, the decline, the sense of pessimism about the future.” He further emphasized his disagreement with figures like Elon Musk regarding pronatalist solutions, adding, > “I disagree with @elonmusk in that I don’t think there’s some kind of a magic thing you can do around natalism… there’s probably no magic bullet solution.”
Thiel pointed to the widespread nature of low fertility, noting that "the fact that people are not reproducing in all 50 states in the US, the fertility rates are below 2.1." Global data corroborates this trend, with the U.S. total fertility rate falling to a record low of 1.6 in 2024. Countries like South Korea exhibit some of the world's lowest rates, estimated at 0.7 to 0.81 children per woman, far below the typical developed-world replacement rate of 2.1 births per female. Italy and Iran also experience similarly low rates, underscoring what Thiel describes as a "universal conserved phenomenon" of "late modernity."
Thiel's concerns about population extend beyond mere observation; he has actively invested in the fertility and women's health sector. His investments include companies like Rhea, a reproductive health service, and 28, an application focused on menstrual cycle tracking. These ventures align with a broader trend among some Silicon Valley elites who are exploring technological solutions and pronatalist initiatives to address declining birth rates, alongside their interests in longevity and anti-aging research.
The implications of sustained low fertility rates are significant, potentially impacting future economic growth, social security systems, and workforce availability. While some tech leaders advocate for increased procreation or technological interventions, Thiel's analysis suggests that the underlying causes are deeply rooted in contemporary societal conditions, making simple fixes unlikely to succeed.