Political strategist and election forecaster Rachel Bitecofer has outlined key messaging points for 2026 political candidates, advising them to emphasize criticisms of the Biden administration's border policies and the participation of transgender women in women's sports. In a recent social media post, Bitecofer stated, "Our 2026 candidates need to be able to say that Biden fucked up leaving the border open and that biological men can’t compete against biological women in sports."
The Biden administration's approach to border security has been a subject of intense debate. While the administration has implemented various measures, including increased enforcement and new humanitarian pathways, it has faced criticism for record levels of migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border. Recent actions include a June 2024 proclamation to temporarily suspend and limit entry for certain noncitizens when the border is overwhelmed, aiming to make removals quicker.
Concurrently, the debate surrounding transgender athletes in women's sports continues to be a contentious issue. Opponents argue that physiological differences, particularly those stemming from male puberty, create an unfair advantage for transgender women competing against cisgender women. Conversely, proponents emphasize inclusivity, the importance of gender identity, and the impact of hormone therapy on athletic performance, with some studies suggesting no inherent advantage for transgender women after hormone suppression.
Bitecofer, known for her "negative partisanship" theory and her accurate prediction of the 2018 "Blue Wave," often advises on strategies to frame issues that divide opposing coalitions or highlight perceived threats. Her counsel to 2026 candidates aligns with her analytical framework, suggesting these topics are potent "wedge issues" that can mobilize voters and define electoral narratives.
The directive from Bitecofer underscores the anticipated focus of upcoming election campaigns. Both border security and the rights of transgender athletes are highly charged subjects that resonate deeply with different segments of the electorate, indicating they will likely remain central to political discourse leading up to the 2026 midterm elections.