Polymarket Assigns 5% Chance to U.S. Military Intervention Against Cartels by September 30

A prediction market on Polymarket, a prominent cryptocurrency-based platform, indicates a mere 5% probability that the United States will engage in direct military intervention against drug cartels on foreign soil by September 30, 2025. This low forecast comes as the deadline for the market's resolution rapidly approaches, reflecting the collective sentiment of traders on this contentious issue. Polymarket functions by allowing users to buy and sell shares representing the likelihood of future events, with share prices directly correlating to perceived probabilities.

The market's assessment follows a significant directive issued by President Donald Trump in August 2025, secretly authorizing the Pentagon to use military force against certain Latin American drug cartels that have been designated as terrorist organizations. Earlier in January and February 2025, the Trump administration officially labeled several cartels, including Mexican groups, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), signaling a more aggressive stance against their operations and the flow of illicit drugs like fentanyl into the U.S.

Despite the U.S. administration's assertive posture, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has firmly rejected any notion of American military intervention within her nation's borders. She previously dismissed President Trump's April 2025 proposal for U.S. military involvement, stating unequivocally that "the United States is not going to come to Mexico with the military." President Sheinbaum has consistently characterized such actions as an "invasion" and a violation of national sovereignty, emphasizing Mexico's commitment to its own security strategies.

The prospect of unilateral U.S. military action against cartels has also raised significant legal and geopolitical concerns. Experts warn that such intervention could contravene international law, exacerbate regional instability, and severely strain diplomatic relations between the two countries. The Polymarket prediction, therefore, suggests that despite the U.S. directive and heightened rhetoric, the actual execution of direct on-the-ground military participation or kinetic strikes is widely considered improbable within the remaining days of September.