Polymarket Launches Speculative Market on President Biden's Potential Arrest Amidst Legal Scrutiny

Prediction market platform Polymarket has introduced a new market speculating on the potential arrest of President Joe Biden by the end of 2025. The market, titled "Biden arrested this year?", allows users to bet on whether the sitting U.S. President will be taken into physical custody or formally processed by law enforcement authorities between September 23 and December 31, 2025. The platform specifies that a qualifying arrest includes being taken into physical custody, voluntarily surrendering to an arrest warrant, or being placed under house arrest, while an indictment without execution of a warrant would not qualify.

The launch of this highly speculative market comes as Polymarket itself has recently been in the spotlight. The platform's CEO, Shayne Coplan, faced an FBI raid on his Manhattan residence in November 2024 as part of a Department of Justice investigation into whether Polymarket allowed U.S.-based trades despite a prior settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket has publicly claimed the raid was "obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration" following the platform's accurate prediction of the 2024 presidential election outcome.

Legally, the prospect of a sitting U.S. President being arrested or indicted is highly complex and unprecedented. The Department of Justice (DOJ) has maintained a long-standing policy, dating back to the 1970s, that a sitting president cannot be indicted or criminally prosecuted. This policy is based on the argument that such actions would unconstitutionally impede the executive branch's ability to perform its duties and undermine the separation of powers.

While legal scholars continue to debate the full scope of presidential immunity, no sitting U.S. President has ever been criminally indicted or arrested. Historical instances, such as Ulysses S. Grant's minor arrest for speeding, do not constitute criminal charges. Currently, there are no publicly known credible legal challenges or investigations against President Biden that would suggest an impending arrest, making the Polymarket prediction market purely speculative in nature. The platform's market reflects a contentious political climate rather than a realistic legal outcome.