Polymarket Predicts 16% Chance of Sam Bankman-Fried's 2025 Release Amid Ongoing Appeal

A prediction market on Polymarket indicates a 16% chance that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried could be released from custody by the end of 2025. This speculative forecast emerges as Bankman-Fried, currently serving a 25-year federal prison sentence, continues to pursue an appeal against his conviction and sentencing. The high-profile case has captivated the financial world since the collapse of his cryptocurrency empire.

Bankman-Fried was sentenced on March 28, 2024, to 25 years in prison, followed by three years of supervised release, and ordered to forfeit $11 billion. A jury had previously found him guilty on seven counts, including wire fraud and conspiracy, for misappropriating billions of dollars from FTX customers and investors. The sentencing judge, Lewis Kaplan, noted Bankman-Fried's lack of remorse and "exceptional flexibility with the truth" during the trial.

His legal team filed an appeal against the conviction and sentence on April 11, 2024, arguing that the trial was fundamentally flawed. Oral arguments for this appeal are currently scheduled for November 4, 2025, before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. A successful appeal could potentially lead to a new trial or a reduced sentence, though legal experts suggest such an outcome for a high-profile conviction is challenging.

While the Bureau of Prisons (BOP) currently estimates Bankman-Fried's release date as December 14, 2044, factoring in good conduct time, the possibility of earlier release remains a subject of public discussion. Federal prisoners can earn reductions for good behavior, and some legal analysts have suggested he might serve closer to 12.5 to 18 years. However, a release within 2025 would necessitate an exceptionally swift and favorable outcome from his appeal, or an unforeseen legal development such as a pardon.