Polymarket Predicts 85% Chance of December Rate Cuts Amid Delayed Q3 GDP Data

Prediction market platform Polymarket indicates an 85% probability of interest rate cuts next month, citing the withholding of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers as a contributing factor. The announcement, made via the platform's social media, has drawn attention to the potential impact of delayed economic indicators on monetary policy expectations.

"BREAKING: The odds of rate cuts next month soar, amid Q3 GDP numbers being withheld. 85% chance of rate cuts," Polymarket stated.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirmed that the advance estimate for Q3 2025 GDP, initially slated for October 30, was canceled due to a federal government shutdown. Subsequent estimates, including the second estimate originally scheduled for November 26, have also been rescheduled. This disruption in official data releases creates an information vacuum for economists and policymakers.

Polymarket, a decentralized platform where users wager real money on future events, has gained recognition for its predictive accuracy in various domains, including economic outcomes. Studies suggest its short-term predictions can be highly accurate, driven by the collective wisdom and financial incentives of its participants. The platform's markets for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions often reflect market sentiment ahead of official announcements.

The absence of comprehensive Q3 GDP data could influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions in December. Central banks typically rely on a broad array of economic indicators, including GDP, inflation, and employment figures, to assess economic health and guide interest rate adjustments. A lack of timely, official data may lead to increased uncertainty and potentially a more cautious or reactive stance from the Federal Reserve.

Financial markets are closely monitoring the situation, as interest rate movements can significantly impact borrowing costs, investment, and overall economic growth. The high probability of rate cuts predicted by Polymarket suggests that market participants anticipate a dovish shift from the Fed, possibly in response to underlying economic weakness that the delayed GDP data might otherwise reveal.