Prominent cryptocurrency analyst and Crypto Banter founder Ran Neuner has asserted that the long-standing four-year crypto market cycle is fundamentally broken, stating on social media, > "This WILL break the crypto cycle - I'm sure of it!" His declaration signals a significant shift in market dynamics, moving away from past patterns.
Neuner, known for his historical accuracy in predicting crypto market movements since 2017, now posits that the traditional cycle, largely influenced by Bitcoin's halving events and retail investor behavior, is no longer applicable. He attributes this change to evolving institutional involvement and a new form of "whale" activity.
According to Neuner, the previous cycle saw large holders, or "whales," selling their assets to retail investors, a pattern that fueled the cyclical nature of bull and bear markets. However, the current landscape reveals a different trend: "old whales sell to new long-term whales," with significant crypto holdings moving into institutional treasury companies and long-term investment funds.
This institutional accumulation, Neuner argues, is fundamentally altering market liquidity and investor behavior, making past predictive models obsolete. He noted in recent interviews that the rate of Bitcoin emission is now too small relative to its market capitalization to drive the same cyclical patterns.
The shift has also impacted retail engagement, with Neuner observing a decline in retail interest following recent market liquidations, describing the period as "max pain" for many. This contrasts sharply with his earlier predictions of Bitcoin reaching $250,000 or more, which were based on the now-disputed cyclical theory.
The implications of Neuner's assessment suggest a more mature, institutionally-driven market. Investors may need to adapt their strategies, moving away from cycle-based trading to focus on long-term fundamental value and the impact of large-scale capital inflows.