Republican Wins TN-07 Special Election by 8.9 Points in Trump +22 District, Signaling Midterm Warning

Republican Matt Van Epps secured victory in the Tennessee 7th Congressional District special election on December 2, 2025, defeating Democrat Aftyn Behn with 53.9% of the vote to Behn's 45.1%. The outcome, an 8.9-point margin in a district President Trump won by 22 points in 2024, has been widely interpreted as a significant warning sign for Republicans ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.

The special election was held to fill the seat vacated by former Representative Mark Green. Despite the district's strong Republican leanings, Behn's performance was notably strong, shifting the district's political alignment by approximately 12 percentage points to the left compared to previous results. This unexpected competitiveness forced Republicans to invest heavily in the race, with reports indicating "millions" were spent, including over $1 million from former President Trump's Political Action Committee.

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin highlighted the significance of Behn's overperformance. "Aftyn Behn’s overperformance in TN-07—a Trump +22 district—is a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms," Martin stated. He further noted, "Republicans had to spend MILLIONS just to barely hold onto this seat." Behn herself raised $2.8 million and conducted a 70,000-door canvassing campaign, demonstrating robust grassroots mobilization.

Analysts view the results as a potential bellwether, indicating heightened Democratic enthusiasm and a more challenging environment for Republicans in traditionally safe seats. While Van Epps' victory maintains Republican control of the seat, the significantly narrowed margin suggests that Democrats are on the offensive and could pose a greater threat in the 2026 midterm elections. Behn, a state representative, has indicated she would consider running against Van Epps again next year.