Russia Faces Unprecedented Halt to Crewed Space Missions After Baikonur Launch Pad Collapse

BAIKONUR, KAZAKHSTAN – Russia's human spaceflight program faces its most significant disruption in over six decades following severe damage to the Baikonur Cosmodrome's Site 31 launch pad on November 27, 2025. The incident occurred shortly after the successful launch of the Soyuz MS-28 mission, which carried two Russian cosmonauts and one NASA astronaut to the International Space Station (ISS). While the crew safely docked with the orbiting laboratory, post-launch inspections revealed the collapse of a critical movable servicing cabin into the exhaust trench beneath the pad.

The damage to the launch infrastructure at Site 31 is particularly critical as it is currently Russia's sole operational launch complex for crewed Soyuz and uncrewed Progress cargo missions to the ISS. Rocket launch analyst Georgy Trishkin stated that "the service cabin collapsed," and part of the structures fell under launch pad 31, potentially causing severe consequences. Roscosmos, Russia's space agency, acknowledged "damage to a number of elements of the launch pad," adding that "all the necessary reserve elements are there to restore it and the damage will be eliminated very soon.

However, independent experts and space journalists painted a graver picture. Space popularizer Vitaly Egorov emphasized the scale of the incident, noting, "In fact, from this day on, Russia lost the ability to launch people into space - this has not happened since 1961." Anatoly Zak, a U.S.-based Russian space expert, who stated via social media that he would "track all the developments on the Soyuz launch pad collapse and potential corrective measures," also indicated that preliminary estimates suggest repairs could take up to two years.

The indefinite grounding of crewed missions from Baikonur's Site 31 raises concerns about the rotation of ISS crews and the delivery of essential cargo. Despite the geopolitical tensions, space cooperation between the U.S. and Russia has largely continued, making this infrastructure failure a shared challenge for the ISS program. Russia is now evaluating options, which may include accelerating the development of alternative launch sites or seeking deeper international cooperation to maintain its access to orbit.