Russian Oil Refining Capacity Down 17% Amid Sustained Ukrainian Drone Attacks

Ukrainian drone attacks have significantly disrupted Russia's oil refining capabilities, with an estimated 17% of the country's refinery capacity now offline. These strikes, intensifying in recent months, have led to domestic gasoline shortages and prompted Moscow to impose export bans on fuel, aiming to cripple the Kremlin's war economy. The strategy aligns with the sentiment expressed by Adam Lowisz, who stated in a recent tweet, > "The only way we are going to stop Putin's senseless war machine is by bankrupting it. Every oil refinery that Putin loses is a day sooner this war can end."

The cumulative impact of these attacks has pushed between 15% and 20% of Russia's total fuel production offline, according to analysts. This disruption has caused queues at gas stations in various provincial cities and forced Russia to extend its ban on gasoline sales abroad, depriving the Kremlin of crucial foreign currency revenues. The destruction at key facilities, including Rosneft’s Ryazan and Lukoil’s Volgograd refineries, has reportedly taken 700,000-750,000 barrels per day of capacity offline.

Kyiv views these drone operations as a form of economic pressure designed to reduce the financial resources Russia needs to fund its ongoing conflict. An official from Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) indicated that the strikes are intended to "reduce the inflow of foreign currency that Russia needs to wage war." This approach seeks to bring the economic realities of the war to ordinary Russians, a tactic that European officials believe elicits a response from the Kremlin.

Since early 2024, Ukraine has launched a wave of long-range drone attacks against at least 24 Russian refineries and numerous oil depots, with the campaign escalating significantly in August 2025. Major targets have included facilities in the Krasnodar, Syzran, Ryazan, Saratov, and Samara regions. The repeated strikes, sometimes hitting already damaged sites, complicate repair efforts, especially given the absence of Western technical support due to sanctions.

Russia has attempted to mitigate the impact by purchasing petroleum from Belarus and pressuring refineries to intensify maintenance work. However, the ongoing attacks, coupled with seasonal peak demand for gasoline from tourists and farmers, continue to strain domestic supply. While the Russian economy is not yet on the brink of collapse, the sustained pressure on its energy sector is creating significant budgetary dilemmas and economic challenges for Moscow.