SBF Pardon Speculation Rises to 12% Following CZ's Clemency, Despite Significant Legal Differences

Speculation regarding a potential presidential pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the convicted founder of FTX, has seen a notable increase, reaching 12% on prediction markets like Polymarket. This surge follows the recent pardon granted to Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the founder of Binance, by President Donald Trump. Despite this uptick in betting, legal experts largely remain skeptical, highlighting the stark differences in the nature and scale of the two individuals' offenses.

Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison in March 2024 for orchestrating multiple fraudulent schemes, including the misappropriation of over $8 billion in customer funds from FTX. He was found guilty on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy. In contrast, Changpeng Zhao received a four-month sentence in 2024 for failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering program at Binance, a compliance-related offense. Zhao has since served his time and received a presidential pardon.

The tweet from "DCinvestor" suggests a possible link between the two cases, stating, "> whatever CZ paid/gave to get the pardon, part of the deal was likely that SBF would never be pardoned." The tweet further claims, "> most of CZ’s problems were a direct result of SBF collaborating with previous admin." However, there is no verifiable public information to substantiate the claim that SBF's collaboration with a previous administration directly caused CZ's legal issues or that a "deal" was made concerning SBF's pardon status.

Bankman-Fried, historically a significant donor to Democratic campaigns, has recently made efforts to align himself with conservative figures, including an interview with Tucker Carlson and claims of political persecution. His parents have reportedly engaged allies within Trump's circle to advocate for his release. These actions are seen as a strategic push for clemency, though legal experts emphasize that SBF's fraud conviction and lack of strong political ties to the current administration make a pardon highly improbable.

The significant disparity in the severity of their crimes—SBF's conviction for massive fraud versus CZ's compliance failures—is a primary reason for the skepticism surrounding a potential pardon for the former FTX CEO. While Trump has previously granted clemency to individuals involved in financial crimes, SBF's case presents a unique challenge due to the scale of customer losses and his prior political affiliations.