Senate Bill Jeopardizes 500 GW of U.S. Energy Capacity as Demand Soars by 450 GW

The United States electricity grid is facing a critical juncture, with projections indicating a need for approximately 450 gigawatts (GW) of new generation capacity by 2030 to meet soaring demand. This comes as a proposed Senate bill, the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," threatens to eliminate around 500 GW of potential energy generation, primarily by cutting clean energy incentives. The confluence of these factors poses significant challenges for grid stability and future economic growth across the nation.

Driven largely by the rapid expansion of data centers for artificial intelligence and a resurgence in domestic manufacturing through reshoring initiatives, U.S. electricity demand is experiencing unprecedented growth. Forecasts from entities like the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) predict a 78 GW increase in winter peak demand over the next decade, while the Department of Energy estimates data centers alone could consume up to 12% of total U.S. electricity by 2028. This surge necessitates substantial investment in new generation and transmission infrastructure.

The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" proposes significant changes to the clean energy landscape established by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Key provisions include accelerating the phase-out of tax credits for wind and solar projects by 2027, shifting eligibility from "commenced construction" to "placed in service," and introducing a new excise tax on projects using components from "foreign entities of concern." These measures are designed to curb incentives for renewable energy development.

Industry analysis suggests these changes could jeopardize a substantial portion of planned clean energy projects. According to Cleanview's project tracker, approximately 547 GW of solar and wind capacity expected online by 2027 or later are now at risk of cancellation. Senator Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) stated, > "We are literally going to have not enough electricity because Trump is killing solar. It’s that serious." This legislative action could lead to higher electricity prices for consumers and significant job losses in the clean energy sector.

Experts warn that repealing clean energy investments could result in a cumulative loss of $1.1 trillion in gross domestic product and put 840,000 jobs at risk by the end of the decade, according to the Center for American Progress. The bill's focus on traditional energy sources, while extending some incentives for nuclear and hydropower, risks undermining the nation's energy transition goals and its competitiveness in the global clean energy market. The mismatch between rising demand and constrained supply capacity presents a critical challenge for the U.S. power grid's future reliability.