Social Security 2026 COLA Estimate Rises to 2.6% Amid Persistent Inflation

A new estimate suggests the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security payments in 2026 could reach 2.6 percent. This projection, based on federal inflation data released for June, indicates a continued upward trend in anticipated benefit increases for millions of Americans. The estimate was provided by The Senior Citizens League, a non-partisan advocacy group.

According to The Senior Citizens League, their "model's prediction has increased for five consecutive months amid mounting inflationary pressures." This 2.6 percent forecast represents a 0.1 percent increase over the group's previous month's prediction of 2.5 percent for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments.

The Social Security Administration (SSA) calculates the official COLA annually using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). This calculation compares the average CPI-W from the third quarter of the current year to the third quarter of the last year a COLA was determined. The official COLA announcement typically occurs in October, with adjustments taking effect in January of the following year.

The projected 2.6 percent COLA for 2026, while lower than the 8.7 percent seen in 2023 or the 3.2 percent in 2024, aligns closely with the 20-year average COLA of 2.6 percent. For context, the COLA for 2025 was set at 2.5 percent. These adjustments are critical for maintaining the purchasing power of Social Security benefits, which are a primary income source for a significant portion of the elderly population.

Advocacy groups like The Senior Citizens League closely monitor inflation data, recognizing that even modest increases are vital for retirees. Concerns persist among beneficiaries that COLAs may not fully keep pace with the rising costs of essential goods and services, particularly healthcare, which disproportionately affects seniors. The consistent upward revisions in the COLA estimate underscore the ongoing financial challenges posed by inflation for those on fixed incomes.