A recent tweet by Louis Anslow has ignited discussion regarding the potential link between societal optimism or pessimism and generational birth rates, suggesting a shift from the post-war "Baby Boomer" era of optimism to a more pessimistic outlook influencing subsequent generations. Anslow's observation posits that a growing sense of uncertainty about the future may contribute to fewer children being born, humorously coining the term "Baby Doomers" for Generation X.
"Interesting that people stopped having kids as the narrative about technology and the future turned pessimistic... If Baby Boomers were the result of optimism, then should we call Gen-X the 'Baby Doomers' - fewer born into a culture of pessimism and degrowth."
Research supports the notion that societal pessimism plays a role in fertility decisions. Studies indicate that young adults increasingly cite global challenges such as economic instability, climate change, and social polarization as reasons for delaying or foregoing parenthood. This "societal pessimism" is distinct from individual circumstances, suggesting a broader cultural influence on reproductive choices. While individuals might remain optimistic about their personal lives, a pervasive sense of gloom about the world's future can impact the decision to bring children into it.
Historically, the post-World War II period saw a significant surge in births, known as the Baby Boom (roughly 1946-1964), often attributed to renewed optimism and economic prosperity. Following this, Generation X (born approximately 1965-1980) experienced a notable decline in birth rates. This period coincided with growing concerns about environmental issues, nuclear threats, and economic shifts, potentially aligning with Anslow's assertion of a turning point towards pessimism.
Globally, fertility rates have been declining, particularly in developed nations, with many countries falling below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman needed to sustain population levels without immigration. Experts note that while policies like enhanced parental leave and childcare support can offer some boost, they often fall short of reversing these long-term trends. The discussion extends to whether declining birth rates could lead to more sustainable economies by reducing the reliance on endless growth.
The debate underscores a complex interplay between demographic trends, economic conditions, and collective societal sentiment. As the world grapples with various uncertainties, the impact on family planning and future generations remains a critical area of sociological and economic inquiry.