Starship V2 Test Success Bolsters Open-Source SpaceX Valuation Model

The recent successful completion of SpaceX's "final V2 test" for its Starship rocket on October 13, 2025, is proving critical to the open-source valuation model for the private aerospace company. Financial analyst Daniel Maguire highlighted this development, stating, > "Starship is critical to our open-source SpaceX valuation model - read our thoughts on last week's successful final V2 test below." This significant milestone directly influences the projected financial outlook for Elon Musk's ambitious space venture.

The 11th Starship flight marked the conclusion of the "Version 2" or "Block 2" design, achieving a near-perfect test flight that included the deployment of Starlink simulators, a successful engine relight, and a robust reentry with its heat shield performing well. The Super Heavy booster also executed a new landing-burn profile before a planned soft splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico. This success follows a "troubled but instructive chapter" for the V2 series, which experienced several failures earlier in 2025.

Daniel Maguire, recognized for his transparent financial analysis, developed an open-source model to estimate SpaceX's valuation, a complex undertaking for a privately held company with diverse, long-term projects. This model integrates various factors, such as Starlink revenue, future missions, and crucially, the progress and operational readiness of Starship. Its open-source nature allows for community input and scrutiny, aiming for a robust and widely accepted valuation.

The successful V2 test directly impacts Maguire's model by de-risking future operational phases and increasing confidence in Starship's ambitious goals. With this milestone, SpaceX is now transitioning to "Version 3" (V3) of Starship, which will be larger, more powerful, and designed for orbital flights, operational payload missions, and propellant transfer. This progress can lead to more favorable projections for Starship's role in satellite deployment, lunar missions, and potential Mars colonization, thereby enhancing SpaceX's overall valuation.

This development underscores the intricate link between engineering success and financial valuation in the high-stakes aerospace industry. The successful "final V2 test" serves as a tangible data point reinforcing the technological feasibility and commercial promise of the Starship program as SpaceX moves towards its next-generation V3 design and aims to revolutionize space travel.