Stolen Louvre Jewels: Experts Estimate Less Than 10% Recovery Chance Amid Dismantling Fears

Paris, France – A recent, audacious daylight heist at the Louvre Museum on October 19, 2025, saw thieves make off with eight priceless jewels from the Galerie d'Apollon, valued at approximately $102 million. In the wake of this high-profile theft, the blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket has become a platform for speculative trading on the fate of the stolen artifacts. Traders are actively betting on the recovery of the jewels and the apprehension of the culprits, even as experts express deep pessimism regarding the return of the items.

Polymarket, known for allowing users to wager on future events, features markets directly related to the Louvre incident. One such market asks, "Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be recovered by [specific date]?" This activity underscores the public and financial interest surrounding the heist, turning the real-world crime into a live betting event for participants.

However, the outlook for recovery is dim, according to art crime specialists. "History suggests otherwise," stated The Oracle by Polymarket in a tweet by @abcdefmlzy, referencing the low success rates in retrieving high-value stolen art. Experts like Dutch art detective Arthur Brand fear the jewels are "long gone," likely to be broken up and sold for a fraction of their worth on the black market.

The general recovery rate for stolen art is notoriously low, with many estimates falling below 10%, and some as low as 2-5% for high-value pieces. Tobias Kormind, managing director of 77 Diamonds, suggests that professional thieves often dismantle and recut large, recognizable stones to evade detection, effectively erasing their provenance. This process makes the unique historical items virtually untraceable and unrecoverable in their original form.

The stolen items, including a tiara and brooch belonging to Empress Eugénie and an emerald necklace from Empress Marie Louise, carry immense historical and cultural significance for France. While authorities, including a specialized police unit, are engaged in a widespread manhunt, the consensus among experts is that the jewels are "too hot" to sell intact, increasing the likelihood of their permanent alteration or disappearance.