A new hypothetical poll released by Polling USA on July 20, 2025, indicates former President Donald Trump holding a four-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in a potential 2028 presidential election matchup. The survey, conducted from July 19-20, 2025, among 1,500 likely voters, showed Trump at 42% support, with Harris trailing at 38%. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 2.5%, also listed Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 10%, with 10% remaining as Other/Undecided.
The tweet from Polling USA, dated July 20, 2025, stated: > "🚨 NEW POLL: 2028 Presidential Election (Hypothetical) 🚨 Trump: 42% Harris: 38% DeSantis: 10% Other/Undecided: 10% Polling USA / July 19-20, 2025 / N=1500 LV / MOE +/- 2.5% #Election2028 #USElection #Poll" This early snapshot offers a glimpse into the potential dynamics of the next presidential cycle, which is expected to be an open contest for both major parties.
While former President Trump is constitutionally limited to two terms, discussions about his influence or a hypothetical third-term bid continue to surface in political discourse, alongside the potential for his son, Donald Trump Jr., to run. Vice President Harris, a prominent figure in the Democratic Party, is widely considered a leading contender for the Democratic nomination, though other names like Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom are also frequently mentioned in early polling for the Democratic primary. Recent Emerson College polls have shown Buttigieg sometimes edging out Harris in the Democratic field.
On the Republican side, Governor DeSantis, despite his current 10% showing in this hypothetical general election poll, remains a significant figure for the GOP nomination, often alongside Vice President J.D. Vance, who has emerged as a strong frontrunner in several early Republican primary surveys. The 2028 election is poised to be a pivotal moment for both parties, as they seek to define their future leadership and policy directions.
Political analysts caution that early polls, conducted years before an election, primarily reflect name recognition rather than definitive voter sentiment. These initial surveys serve more as indicators of public familiarity with potential candidates and the general political climate. The landscape for the 2028 election is expected to evolve significantly as candidates formally emerge and campaigns begin to take shape.