London – The United Kingdom has announced it will formally recognize a Palestinian state by September, a significant policy shift contingent on Israel meeting specific conditions. Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated the recognition would proceed unless Israel takes "substantive steps" to end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, agrees to a ceasefire, and commits to a long-term peace process and a two-state solution. This conditional approach has, however, sparked immediate criticism, with commentators like Andrew Neil describing the government's position as "bereft of logical explanation" and creating "perverse incentives."
The conditions set by the UK for Israel include an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, allowing full humanitarian aid access, and a commitment to halt West Bank annexation. Concurrently, the UK reiterated its demands for Hamas to release all hostages, agree to a ceasefire, disarm, and accept no future role in Gaza's governance. Foreign Secretary David Lammy emphasized the UK's "special burden of responsibility" to back a two-state solution, stating the Netanyahu government's rejection of it is "wrong morally and strategically."
Critics argue that the UK's conditional recognition could inadvertently encourage Hamas to prolong the conflict. As veteran journalist Andrew Neil highlighted in a recent tweet:
"if a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is reached because Hamas releases all hostages, the UK will NOT recognise Palestine. But if no ceasefire is reached because Hamas refuses to release all hostages, the UK WILL recognise Palestine (whatever that means)." He concluded this creates "perverse incentives," suggesting Hamas gains leverage by not releasing hostages. The Israeli Foreign Ministry echoed this, calling the move a "reward for Hamas."
The British government has rejected claims that its policy rewards Hamas. Transport Minister Heidi Alexander clarified that the decision is not a reward for the militant group but aims to address the "appalling situation" in Gaza and support the Palestinian people. Prime Minister Starmer underscored that the move is driven by the "intolerable situation in Gaza" and the diminishing prospect of a two-state solution, asserting that statehood is the "inalienable right of the Palestinian people."
The UK's announcement follows a similar conditional recognition pledge by France, intensifying international pressure on both Israeli and Palestinian parties. This marks a notable departure from previous UK policy, which typically held that recognition should occur as part of a negotiated peace process. The government plans to assess in September whether the conditions set for both Israel and Hamas have been met before making its final decision on recognition.