Senator J.D. Vance recently commented on a significant shift in U.S. employment patterns, asserting that the previously perceived "irreversible demographic fact" of foreign-born individuals gaining jobs while native-born Americans lost them has been reversed. In a tweet, Vance stated, > "I was told 6 months ago that Americans losing jobs and the foreign-born gaining jobs was an irreversible demographic fact. Turns out you just needed a new president and a new immigration policy." This statement highlights a notable change in the labor market composition, which some attribute to recent policy changes.
Historically, the U.S. labor market has seen a rising share of foreign-born workers, with their labor force participation often exceeding that of native-born individuals. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and analyses from organizations like the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PGPF) have frequently noted the significant contributions of foreign-born individuals to the U.S. economy, often participating in the labor force at a higher rate. This long-term trend has sometimes led to discussions about demographic shifts influencing employment growth.
However, recent reports indicate a notable reversal in these trends. According to a July 2025 Fox Business report, the number of U.S.-born workers increased by over 800,000 from May to June, marking a significant gain. This increase also places the U.S.-born workforce more than 2 million higher than at the beginning of the current administration in January. Concurrently, the same report indicated a decline in foreign-born employment during this period.
This shift contrasts with trends observed during the preceding administration, where foreign-born workers gained 1.025 million jobs compared to 1.099 million jobs for native-born workers over a similar timeframe. The Fox Business report suggested that the current administration's increased deportations and heightened fear of immigration raids might be contributing factors to the decline in foreign-born employment. This aligns with Senator Vance's assertion that a "new president and a new immigration policy" are behind the change.
While some political figures, like former White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, have celebrated these figures as a positive development, economists caution against drawing definitive conclusions from short-term, unadjusted monthly data. Experts from Forbes and AFP FactCheck have highlighted that month-to-month changes in labor surveys can be volatile and may not reflect long-term trends. They also emphasize that employment gains for one group do not necessarily come at the expense of another, pointing to complex demographic and economic factors at play.