US Economy Maintains Global Top Position, Challenging Speculative Tweet on Hypothetical 2028 Presidency

A recent social media post by Houman David Hemmati, MD, PhD, has sparked discussion regarding the future economic standing of the United States under a hypothetical Gavin Newsom presidency. On August 21, 2025, Dr. Hemmati tweeted, > "Is it a promise or a threat @GavinNewsom28 ? Because I’m confident that under a hypothetical @GavinNewsom presidency, the USA WILL become #4 in the world — down from #1 !!!" This statement suggests a significant decline in the nation's economic power.

California Governor Gavin Newsom has increasingly become a prominent figure in national politics, fueling widespread speculation about a potential 2028 presidential bid. Despite previous denials, Newsom has recently acknowledged the possibility of a White House run, undertaking visits to key primary states like South Carolina and engaging in more aggressive political discourse. His actions indicate a growing national profile as his current term as governor approaches its conclusion.

However, current economic projections do not support the claim of the United States falling to fourth place globally. According to data from the International Monetary Fund and other reputable financial institutions for 2025, the U.S. maintains its position as the world's largest economy, with a nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeding $30 trillion. China ranks second, followed by Germany in third place. India and Japan are projected to be the fourth and fifth largest economies, respectively.

The United States has consistently held the top economic position since the interwar period, and projections indicate it will remain the largest economy by a considerable margin into the 2030s. Dr. Hemmati, an ophthalmologist by profession, shared his opinion on a hypothetical scenario. Economic analyses from leading institutions do not forecast such a dramatic shift in global economic rankings within the foreseeable future.