US Federal Budget Dedicates One-Third to Programs for 17% of Population, Fueling 'Gerontocracy' Debate

Political commentator Richard Hanania recently asserted that Western nations, including the United States, are functioning as "gerontocracies," systems of governance heavily influenced by the elderly. In a social media post, Hanania stated, "We’re a gerontocracy," linking to an essay detailing his perspective on how laws and societal structures increasingly favor older generations at the expense of the young. This view posits that the demographic shift towards an aging population has profound implications for economic and social policy.

Hanania's "Critical Age Theory" suggests that current systems, such as social security and healthcare entitlements, disproportionately benefit the elderly. He highlights that approximately one-third of the U.S. federal budget is allocated to Social Security and Medicare, programs primarily serving the 17% of the population aged 65 and over. This substantial financial commitment, he argues, represents a significant transfer of wealth from younger, working generations to older retirees.

Further supporting this concept, Hanania points to age discrimination laws and seniority systems in employment, which he contends create artificial advantages for older workers. This dynamic, coupled with rising healthcare costs and declining birth rates, contributes to a scenario where younger generations face increasing economic burdens and reduced opportunities. The French national statistics institute, INSEE, for instance, reports that individuals over 65 are the least at risk of poverty, while those under 30 are the most vulnerable.

The implications of such a gerontocracy extend to economic dynamism and future growth. Hanania suggests that prioritizing the elderly can lead to a "low-fertility trap," where an aging and shrinking workforce stifles innovation and economic expansion. Despite the perceived unsustainability of these trends, political reform remains challenging due to the significant voting power and organized lobbying efforts of older demographics, making fundamental changes to entitlement programs politically difficult.

The debate underscores a growing intergenerational tension, with critics arguing that current policies impede the ability of young people to start families, purchase homes, and invest in their futures. Addressing the challenges of a gerontocracy, according to Hanania, will require difficult policy choices to ensure long-term societal and economic health.