The United States' fertility rate has reached an unprecedented low, with new federal data indicating a significant decline to less than 1.6 children per woman in 2024. This trend underscores a continuing pattern of decreasing birth rates across the nation, as highlighted by a recent social media post stating, > "American fertility rates are trending downwards." The provisional data from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) reveals a persistent downward trajectory, raising questions about demographic shifts and societal factors.
The total fertility rate for the U.S. stood at 1.621 in 2023, further inching down to 1.599 in 2024, marking an all-time low. This follows a 3% decrease in the general fertility rate from 2022 to 2023, reaching 54.5 births per 1,000 females aged 15-44. The overall number of births in 2023 was 3,591,328, a 2% decline from the previous year.
Historically, the U.S. fertility rate has seen significant fluctuations, plummeting from around 3.5 in the early 1960s to 1.7 by 1976 after the Baby Boom era. While it briefly rose to 2.1 in 2007, the rate has consistently declined since then, with only a brief uptick in 2014 and 2021. The current figures represent a 17% decline in the number of births and a 21% drop in the general fertility rate since the 2007 peak.
Analysis of age-specific birth rates shows declines for women aged 15 to 34 between 2023 and 2024. Conversely, birth rates remained stable for women aged 35 to 39 and notably increased for those aged 40 to 44, indicating a shift towards older maternal ages. Experts suggest that factors such as individuals waiting longer to have children and a growing social acceptance of smaller families or no children contribute to these trends.
In response to the declining rates, the Trump administration has explored various policy initiatives aimed at boosting birth rates. These efforts include an executive order designed to expand access to and reduce the costs of in vitro fertilization (IVF), and consideration of "baby bonuses" to incentivize family growth. Despite these concerns, some researchers, like Leslie Root from the University of Colorado Boulder, suggest there is no immediate cause for alarm regarding the current fertility rate.