US Immigration Debates: Long-Term Impact of Diverse Migratory Waves Under Scrutiny

A recent social media post by Jonatan Pallesen has sparked discussion regarding the United States' historical and ongoing "mass immigration experiments." Pallesen's tweet draws a distinction between the "very well worked out" European mass immigration and the current, ongoing influx primarily from Latin America and Asia, whose "long-term impact we do not yet know." The commentary suggests that past successes do not guarantee similar outcomes for demographically different immigration waves. A recent social media post by Jonatan Pallesen has sparked discussion regarding the United States' historical and ongoing "mass immigration experiments." Pallesen's tweet draws a distinction between the "very well worked out" European mass immigration and the current, ongoing influx primarily from Latin America and Asia, whose "long-term impact we do not yet know." The commentary suggests that past successes do not guarantee similar outcomes for demographically different immigration waves.

Historically, the U.S. experienced significant European mass migration between 1850 and 1920, which studies indicate had substantial long-term economic benefits. Research published in the Review of Economic Studies found that counties with higher historical immigration from this period continue to enjoy better economies, with increased individual incomes, reduced unemployment and poverty, and improved education. This era saw millions of Europeans, initially from Western Europe and later from Southern and Eastern Europe, integrate into American society, contributing to industrial booms and long-term prosperity.

The landscape of U.S. immigration shifted dramatically following the Immigration Act of 1965, which eliminated country-specific quotas and led to a new wave of immigrants predominantly from Latin America and Asia. This period, often referred to as the fourth wave, saw millions arrive, driven by factors including conflict in Southeast Asia and economic opportunities. While the sheer number of immigrants in the 2000s surpassed those in the 1900s, the foreign-born share of the U.S. population as a percentage was lower than during the peak of European immigration.

The long-term economic and social impacts of these more recent immigration patterns are a subject of ongoing analysis. A 2025 report from the Dallas Federal Reserve highlighted that while unauthorized immigration surged between 2021 and 2024, a subsequent decline, partly due to new policies, is projected to lower GDP growth by 0.75 to 1 percentage point in 2025 compared to previous projections. This suggests that immigration, including unauthorized flows, contributes significantly to labor force and population growth, impacting the economy. The report indicates that increased net unauthorized immigration typically boosts U.S. GDP growth for about two years with minimal effect on inflation, driven primarily by residential investment.

The tweet by Jonatan Pallesen underscores a key aspect of the current immigration debate: the uncertainty surrounding the future integration and societal contributions of diverse immigrant populations, contrasting it with a historical period often viewed through a lens of successful assimilation. As the U.S. continues to navigate these demographic shifts, understanding both historical precedents and contemporary economic analyses remains crucial for informed policy discussions.