U.S. International Tourism Forecast to Decline 8.2% Amid Trump-Era Policies

Washington D.C. – International tourism to the United States is projected to experience a significant decline in 2025, with a leading travel research firm forecasting an 8.2% drop in international arrivals. This trend has fueled concerns among industry observers, including political commentator Armand Domalewski, who attributes the downturn to policies implemented during the Trump administration.

"normally I wouldn’t mind charging foreign tourists more but US tourism is collapsing thanks to Trump as it is," Domalewski stated on social media.

According to Tourism Economics, a travel research firm, the U.S. is expected to see 8.2% fewer international arrivals in 2025. This downturn is accompanied by a projected $12.5 billion loss in international visitor spending, making the U.S. the only country among 184 studied by the World Travel & Tourism Council where foreign visitor spending is anticipated to fall this year. U.S. government data also indicates an overall drop-off in international arrivals during the first seven months of 2025, with overseas visitors declining by over 3 million, or 1.6%, compared to the previous year.

Analysts and industry experts point to a confluence of factors stemming from Trump-era policies as drivers of this decline. These include stricter immigration enforcement, the implementation of global tariffs, and a new $250 "visa integrity fee" set to take effect on October 1, which adds to travel costs for visitors from non-visa waiver countries. The perceived unwelcoming rhetoric and policies have reportedly deterred travelers, particularly from key markets.

Specific regions have shown notable decreases, with Canadian visitors plummeting and significant drops observed from China (nearly 14%) and India (5.5%). While the U.S. Department of Commerce's International Trade Administration (ITA) reported record-high travel exports of $126.9 billion for the first six months of 2025, these figures represent overall spending and contrast with the reported decreases in the number of international arrivals.

The U.S. travel industry continues to grapple with these challenges, with some local officials in major tourist destinations like New York City projecting substantial drops in international visitors. Stakeholders are closely monitoring global travel trends and policy impacts as the sector navigates its recovery and aims to regain its competitive standing in the international tourism market.