Sasha Gusev recently observed a notable shift in U.S. national trends, tweeting: > "It's interesting that the border was essentially closed in early 2020 and crime skyrocketed, and then there was a wave of border crossings under Biden and crime has declined to historic lows. Probably means nothing." This social media commentary highlights the concurrent changes in U.S. border policy and nationwide crime statistics over the past few years, prompting a closer look at the data.
FBI statistics confirm a significant increase in homicides in 2020, which saw a nearly 30% surge, marking the largest single-year jump on record. However, this trend has since reversed, with violent crime rates declining in 2022 and 2023, nearing pre-pandemic levels. The national murder rate, in particular, saw a historic drop, decreasing by approximately 16% from its 2020 peak by the end of 2023, with preliminary data for early 2024 indicating continued declines across various violent crime categories.
The "border was essentially closed" in early 2020 due to the implementation of Title 42, a public health order invoked by the Trump administration in March 2020. This measure allowed U.S. border officials to rapidly expel migrants without a formal asylum hearing, ostensibly to prevent the spread of COVID-19. This policy significantly restricted entry at the U.S.-Mexico border, leading to millions of expulsions throughout its duration.
Under the Biden administration, migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border have reached record levels, with 8.6 million encounters recorded from January 2021 through October 2024. While Title 42 remained in effect until May 2023, the administration has also introduced new policies and pathways, leading to a complex and often high volume of crossings. Despite recent policy shifts and increased enforcement efforts by Mexico, which have seen some monthly declines, the overall number of encounters remains elevated compared to previous administrations.
While the tweet draws attention to the temporal relationship between these two distinct phenomena
—border policy changes and crime rate fluctuations—official analyses typically attribute the 2020 crime surge to a confluence of factors. Experts cite the widespread disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, an increase in gun violence, and economic stress as primary contributors to the spike. Similarly, the subsequent decline in crime is attributed to various law enforcement initiatives and broader societal shifts, rather than a direct correlation with border crossing volumes.