US Official Warns Against Complacency as Huawei's 2025 AI Chip Output Projected at 200,000 Units

Washington D.C. – The United States Commerce Department projects that Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies will produce no more than 200,000 advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips in 2025. This assessment, revealed by Jeffrey Kessler, Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security, underscores the impact of ongoing U.S. export controls aimed at limiting China's technological advancements. Huawei's Ascend 910C chips are positioned as a domestic alternative to those from U.S. leader Nvidia.

Despite the seemingly low production figure, Kessler cautioned against a "false sense of security," emphasizing that China is investing heavily to boost its AI chip production capabilities and is "catching up quickly." Most, if not all, of Huawei's limited 2025 Ascend chip output is expected to be delivered to companies within China to meet domestic demand. This production volume pales in comparison to the over 1 million China-specific H20 GPUs Nvidia is projected to produce in 2024-2025.

The production of AI chips, such as Huawei's Ascend series, heavily relies on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). Chinese memory manufacturer ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has reportedly begun mass production of HBM2 memory, a critical component for these advanced chips. While CXMT's progress is significant for China's self-sufficiency goals, the company currently lags behind global leaders like Samsung and SK Hynix, who are mass-producing more advanced HBM3 and HBM3E generations.

The U.S. export restrictions, in place since 2019, have compelled Chinese firms to develop homegrown alternatives, but they also create bottlenecks in the supply chain, including for advanced packaging techniques required for HBM. A social media post by "Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)" questioned the 200,000 figure, stating, "> This is probably nonsense, except for the bottleneck in the form of HBM chips, which CXMT will produce anyway." The tweet also speculated on low yield rates, suggesting "<2K WPM capacity," though specific yield figures for Ascend chips or CXMT's HBM production were not independently reported.

Huawei's CEO Ren Zhengfei has acknowledged that the company's chips are a generation behind U.S. competitors but highlighted an annual investment of over $25 billion to bridge this technological gap. The ongoing U.S.-China tech rivalry continues to shape the global semiconductor landscape, with both nations vying for leadership in critical AI technologies. While China's AI models are considered to be closing the gap rapidly, its AI chip technology is estimated to be one to two years behind the United States.