The U.S. Treasury reported a budget deficit of $284 billion for October, marking the start of the 2026 fiscal year. This figure represents a significant financial challenge, with government expenditures experiencing an 18% year-over-year increase. The reported deficit has drawn attention to the nation's fiscal trajectory.
According to a social media post by The Kobeissi Letter, the $284.4 billion deficit in October stands as the "worst opening month to any fiscal year in history," surpassing the $284.1 billion recorded in October 2020 during the height of the pandemic response. This perspective highlights the magnitude of the current fiscal situation.
However, the Treasury Department indicated that the reported deficit was significantly impacted by timing shifts. A Reuters report on November 25, 2025, noted that approximately $105 billion in November benefit payments for military and healthcare programs were shifted into October. When adjusted for these calendar differences, the October deficit would have been closer to $180 billion, representing a 29% reduction from the adjusted October 2024 deficit of $252 billion.
Total government outlays for October reached $689 billion, an 18% increase compared to $584 billion in October 2024, aligning with the tweet's observation of rising expenditures. This surge in spending underscores the ongoing fiscal pressures. The Treasury also cited a recent 43-day federal government shutdown as a factor affecting the timing and reporting of some payments.
Despite the high unadjusted deficit, the fiscal landscape is complex. Record tariff revenues and an increase in non-withheld individual tax receipts, partly due to delayed payments from California wildfire-affected residents, contributed to overall revenues. Analysts continue to monitor these trends as the government navigates ongoing spending commitments and revenue collection.