A recent study published in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet indicates that interventions by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) have prevented more than 91 million deaths globally over the past two decades. The findings come amid significant funding cuts to the agency, raising concerns about a potential reversal of progress and a substantial increase in preventable deaths, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis has spurred renewed debate on the critical role of U.S. foreign aid.
The comprehensive study, which analyzed data from 133 countries between 2001 and 2021, found that USAID programs were associated with a 15% reduction in all-cause mortality and a 32% reduction in deaths among children under five. Notably, the agency's efforts contributed to a 65% reduction in HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Researchers estimated that USAID-supported initiatives saved approximately 30 million children's lives during this period.
The majority of U.S. foreign aid directed to Africa is non-military developmental assistance, focusing on health, economic growth, and humanitarian support. For instance, in 2024, over $12 billion in American foreign assistance went to sub-Saharan Africa, with a significant portion allocated to bilateral health programs. These include combating diseases like HIV/AIDS and malaria, strengthening local health systems, and providing essential humanitarian aid.
Despite its proven impact, deep funding cuts to USAID by the current administration, including the cancellation of over 80% of its programs, are projected to have severe consequences. The Lancet study forecasts that these cuts could lead to more than 14 million additional deaths worldwide by 2030, including 4.5 million among children under five. Experts warn that the resulting shock for many vulnerable nations could be "comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict."
Aid organizations and public health experts have voiced alarm over the potential for decades of progress to be undone. Dr. Francisco Saúte, a study co-author and director at the Manhiça Health Research Centre in Mozambique, stated, "Cutting this funding now not only puts lives at risk -- it also undermines critical infrastructure that has taken decades to build." The ongoing debate highlights the profound human cost associated with reductions in international development assistance.