Vance Commands 34-Point Lead in Early 2028 GOP Primary Poll

Washington D.C. – Vice President J.D. Vance has established a significant 34-point lead in the hypothetical 2028 Republican presidential primary race, according to a new Emerson College Polling survey. The poll, conducted between June 24 and 25, places Vance as the clear frontrunner for the post-Trump GOP nomination, garnering 46% support among likely Republican primary voters.

The Emerson College survey indicates that Vance's closest potential rival is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who polled at 12%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis followed with 9%, and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 5%. A notable 17% of respondents remained undecided, highlighting the early stage of the contest. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that "Vice President Vance has solidified himself as the frontrunner in the 2028 nomination contest."

Vance, 40, assumed the role of Vice President on January 20, 2025, following the Trump-Vance victory in the 2024 presidential election. His political ascent has been marked by a shift from a vocal critic of Donald Trump in 2016 to a staunch ally, embracing the "America First" agenda. This transformation has positioned him as a key figure within the populist wing of the Republican Party.

The former U.S. Senator from Ohio gained national prominence with his 2016 memoir, "Hillbilly Elegy," which offered insights into the struggles of the white working class in the Rust Belt. His political ideology is characterized by national conservatism, economic populism, and a non-interventionist foreign policy stance. Vance has advocated for stricter border policies, increased tariffs, and has been critical of what he terms "woke capital" and "childless" leadership.

While President Trump is constitutionally limited to two terms, the early polling suggests Vance is seen by many as the natural successor to lead the Republican Party. Experts caution that it is still very early in the 2028 cycle, and a candidate's trajectory can be heavily influenced by the success of the current administration and evolving political dynamics. Vance's high visibility and alignment with the Trump base appear to be significant factors in his current strong showing.