IVF Genetic Screening Market Projected to Exceed $40 Billion by 2032, Fueling Ethical Debates

Recent discussions, notably highlighted by physicist and Genomic Prediction co-founder Steve Hsu, underscore the burgeoning market for polygenic embryo screening (PES) within in vitro fertilization (IVF), a sector anticipated to reach over $40 billion globally by 2032. This growth is driven by increasing infertility rates and advancements in reproductive technologies, prompting both excitement over health benefits and intense ethical scrutiny. Genomic Prediction, a U.S.-based biotechnology firm, is at the forefront of offering preimplantation genetic testing for polygenic conditions (PGT-P), which assesses an embryo's genetic risk for common complex diseases.

Founded by Stephen Hsu, Laurent Tellier, and Nathan Treff in 2017, Genomic Prediction's flagship product, PGTA-P, screens embryos for both chromosomal abnormalities and polygenic conditions like heart disease and diabetes. The company's work aims to enhance IVF success rates and reduce the prevalence of complex genetic disorders by enabling parents to select embryos with lower genetic predispositions. Hsu, discussing his work, emphasized the potential for this technology to significantly improve health outcomes, noting that in countries like Denmark, one in ten babies are already born via IVF, a demographic increasingly open to such screenings.

The growing adoption of PES is projected to contribute to the IVF market's substantial expansion, with forecasts indicating a compound annual growth rate of over 8% through 2032. Proponents argue that PES is a logical progression of existing genetic testing, offering parents a proactive measure to ensure healthier offspring by leveraging naturally occurring genetic variations. Hsu highlighted that the technology does not involve genetic modification but rather informed selection from available embryos.

However, the rapid advancement of PES has ignited considerable ethical debate. Critics express concerns about the potential for exacerbating social inequalities if access remains limited to the affluent, leading to a "slippery slope" towards "designer babies." Questions also arise regarding the accuracy of polygenic scores for complex traits like intelligence and the broader societal implications, including fears of a new form of eugenics. Despite these concerns, Hsu maintains that the underlying science, rooted in polygenicity, presents a vast and largely untapped potential for human health improvement.