Indeed Forecasts 2026 Unemployment to Range Between 4.1% and 4.8% Amidst 'Low-Hire, Low-Fire' Market

Laura Ullrich, Director of Economic Research at Indeed, has shared the company's latest hiring trends and economic outlook, predicting a rise in unemployment for 2026. The forecast, detailed in Indeed's 2026 US Jobs & Hiring Trends Report, suggests a continuation of a "low-hire, low-fire" labor market characterized by stabilizing job openings and anemic GDP growth. The report indicates that while unemployment is expected to increase, it is not projected to do so at an alarming rate.

According to Indeed's consensus scenario, based on an aggregation of economic forecasts, the unemployment rate at the end of 2026 is estimated to range between 4.1% and 4.8%. This outlook suggests that the current environment, where employers are hesitant to make significant hiring decisions but also reluctant to conduct widespread layoffs, is likely to persist. Job postings are anticipated to stabilize, with levels between 6.8 million and 7.4 million by year-end 2026.

Several factors are poised to influence the labor market's trajectory, including the sustained spending power of high-income households, evolving immigration policies, and the impact of federal spending. Indeed highlights that shifts in these areas could push the economy towards more optimistic or pessimistic outcomes within their forecast ranges. The report also notes a persistent mismatch between available jobs and the skills of the workforce, contributing to longer job search durations in some sectors.

The labor market's performance is expected to be uneven across industries and regions. While the healthcare sector continues to be a significant driver of job growth, other areas, such as tech and professional services, have experienced a notable slowdown in demand. Regional dynamics will also play a crucial role, with smaller and mid-sized metropolitan areas often showing more resilient labor demand compared to larger cities.

Indeed's analysis concludes that while the 2026 labor market will feel different, it will not be unrecognizable, with big economic swings deemed unlikely. The "low-hire, low-fire" environment underscores the importance for employers to remain disciplined and opportunistic, while job seekers will need patience and adaptability in their search strategies. As stated in the tweet from Squawk Box, Laura Ullrich of Indeed shared these insights, emphasizing the company's detailed predictions for the coming year.