U.S. Job Market Pessimism Gap Narrows to 9.7% in August, Lowest Since 2017

Washington, D.C. – American consumers are exhibiting increasing pessimism regarding the U.S. job market, with a significant shift observed in August 2025. The gap between those who believe jobs are plentiful and those who find them hard to get narrowed to 9.7%, marking the lowest point since early 2017, excluding the pandemic period. This growing concern is reflected in broader consumer sentiment data, signaling potential headwinds for the economy.

According to data from The Conference Board, consumer confidence dipped slightly in August, falling by 1.3 points to 97.4 from 98.7 in July. The Present Situation Index, which assesses current business and labor market conditions, also declined to 131.2. Notably, consumers' appraisal of current job availability has decreased for the eighth consecutive month, indicating a sustained negative trend in perceptions.

Specific figures highlight the shift in perception, with 20% of consumers now stating that jobs are "hard to get," a notable increase from 14.5% in January of this year. Conversely, the percentage of consumers who view jobs as "plentiful" slightly decreased to 29.7% in August from 29.9% in July. This widening concern about job scarcity contributes to the overall rise in labor market pessimism, a trend that has been observed for more than three years.

The Conference Board's Expectations Index, which gauges short-term outlooks for income, business, and labor market conditions, decreased to 74.8. This figure remains below the critical threshold of 80, which is often seen as a signal of a looming recession. The share of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months also rose in August to its highest level since April, further underscoring economic anxieties.

Recent labor market data supports these concerns. In July, U.S. employers added only 73,000 jobs, falling short of the anticipated 115,000. Revisions to May and June figures further reduced previous estimates by 258,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. The Kobeissi Letter stated, "Such a surge has rarely occurred outside of recessions," and suggested that "the unemployment rate could climb above 6% in the coming months," with "leading indicators in the job market continue to flash warning signs." Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged these emerging risks, indicating that an interest rate cut remains a possibility at the central bank’s upcoming policy meeting in September.