US and Allies Accelerate $1 Billion Investment in Low-Cost 'Attritable' Drones Following Shahed's Impact

The United States and its allies are rapidly developing low-cost, one-way attack drones, often referred to as "copycat versions," in response to the significant impact of Iran's Shahed drones used by Russia in Ukraine. This strategic shift aims to emulate the cost-effectiveness and saturation capabilities demonstrated by these unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the modern battlefield. As stated by The Wall Street Journal, "Iran’s Shahed drones have been used to devastating effect by Russia. Now the U.S. and its allies are racing to develop copycat versions."

Iran's Shahed-136 drones, rebranded as Geran-2 by Russia, have proven highly effective in Ukraine, primarily due to their low production cost, estimated between $20,000 and $50,000 per unit. Russia has utilized these drones in an attrition warfare strategy, launching them in large numbers to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and target critical infrastructure. This approach forces Ukraine to expend much more expensive interceptor missiles, creating an unfavorable cost-exchange ratio.

In response, Western militaries are undergoing a significant transformation, prioritizing the development of "attritable" drone systems—those that are inexpensive enough to be lost in combat without significant operational impact. The Pentagon's "Replicator" initiative, launched in August 2023, aims to deliver thousands of these autonomous systems across multiple domains by August 2025. A proposed $150 billion defense reconciliation bill includes $1 billion specifically to expand the one-way attack UAS industrial base.

Several American companies are now developing drones that resemble the Shahed in design and function. SpektreWorks' Lucas and Griffon Aerospace's Arrowhead, for instance, feature the Shahed's distinctive triangular wing shape, optimized for cheap mass production. However, Western manufacturers face challenges in matching the low production costs of their Iranian and Russian counterparts, with some American long-range drones still costing over $1 million each.

This shift underscores a broader recognition within Western defense circles that future conflicts will increasingly involve mass-produced, low-cost drone swarms. The objective is to provide forces with expendable assets capable of overwhelming adversaries and providing a cost-effective strike capability, moving away from reliance on expensive, high-end platforms.