U.S. Department of Energy Report Projects 100-Fold Increase in Blackouts by 2030

A recent report from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) warns that power outages in the United States could become 100 times more common by 2030. The alarming projection is attributed to a combination of surging electricity demand, particularly from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, and the ongoing retirement of traditional power generation infrastructure. As PBS News highlighted in a recent tweet, this forecast emerges even as "U.S. policy just took a big turn away from the fastest-growing energy production technologies: renewables like wind, solar and battery storage.

The DOE’s "Report on Evaluating U.S. Grid Reliability and Security," mandated by President Donald Trump’s April executive order, details a critical imbalance. It projects that 104 gigawatts (GW) of firm, dispatchable generation capacity will retire by 2030. While 209 GW of new generation is expected to come online, only 22 GW of this new capacity will be firm baseload power, primarily replaced by intermittent sources like wind and solar. This disparity could escalate annual outage hours from single digits to over 800 hours per year, leaving millions vulnerable.

Rising demand, significantly driven by AI-powered data centers, is a major factor. The DOE estimates that approximately 50 GW of the projected 100 GW increase in peak-hour supply needed by 2030 is directly attributable to these energy-intensive facilities. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that "the United States cannot afford to continue down the unstable and dangerous path of energy subtraction previous leaders pursued, forcing the closure of baseload power sources like coal and natural gas."

However, the report's conclusions have drawn criticism from clean energy advocates. Caitlin Marquis, managing director at Advanced Energy United, suggested the report "appears to exaggerate the risk of blackouts and undervalue the contributions of entire resource classes, like wind, solar, and battery storage." She pointed to the experience in Texas, where rapid deployment of renewables has reportedly led to lower costs and enhanced grid reliability, contradicting the report's emphasis on firm generation.

The DOE report underscores the Trump administration's commitment to prioritizing "energy addition" and supporting all forms of energy, including fossil fuels. This stance is further evidenced by recent policy shifts, such as an executive order directing the termination of clean electricity production and investment tax credits for wind and solar. The ongoing debate centers on the optimal strategy to meet growing energy demands and ensure grid stability while navigating environmental and economic considerations.