U.S. Federal Deficits Projected $900 Billion Higher Over Next Decade, Budget Watchdog Reports

Washington D.C. – U.S. federal budget deficits are now projected to be nearly $900 billion higher over the next decade than initially forecast by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in January. This revised outlook, announced on Wednesday by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), attributes the increase primarily to recent tax and spending legislation, alongside ongoing tariffs. The CRFB, a non-partisan budget watchdog, highlighted a cumulative deficit of $22.7 trillion from fiscal years 2026 to 2035, significantly up from the CBO's earlier January forecast of $21.8 trillion. The increase stems from the fiscal impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and the continued implementation of tariffs. The CRFB estimates that the tax and spending bill will increase deficits by $4.6 trillion through 2035, including interest. However, this rise is partially offset by an estimated $3.4 trillion in additional import duty revenue generated by existing tariffs over the next decade. Despite this partial offset, the CRFB projects that annual deficits will steadily climb, reaching $2.6 trillion, or 5.9% of GDP, by 2035. This contrasts with a slightly lower projected deficit of $1.7 trillion for fiscal year 2025. The CBO, Congress's non-partisan budget referee agency, recently stated it would not issue its customary mid-year budget update this year, with its next 10-year outlook expected in early 2026. Net interest payments on the national debt are also a significant factor, forecast to total $14 trillion over the next decade. These payments are projected to rise from nearly $1 trillion in 2025 to $1.8 trillion, or 4.1% of GDP, by 2035. The CRFB also outlined an alternative scenario where deficits could increase by nearly $7 trillion if a significant portion of current tariffs were cancelled or if temporary tax cuts were extended.