Child Population Trends: Austin Sees 26% Growth, San Francisco a Modest 1.6% Decline, Contradicting Viral Claims

A recent tweet by JD Ross claimed, "Austin doubled its number of kids while SF lost half their kids. Wonder why." However, official U.S. Census data reveals a more nuanced picture of child population changes in both cities, contradicting the dramatic figures suggested in the social media post.

Between 2010 and 2023, Austin's population of residents under 18 years old increased by 26%, according to an analysis of U.S. Census data. This growth, while substantial, falls significantly short of the "doubled" figure mentioned in the tweet. Within Austin, the Austin Independent School District (AISD) has reported declining birth rates and projected student enrollment decreases, indicating that much of the child population growth is occurring in the broader Austin metropolitan area suburbs rather than within the city's school district boundaries. Factors such as housing affordability often drive families with children to surrounding communities.

Conversely, San Francisco experienced a 1.6% decrease in its under-18 population during the same 2010-2023 period. While San Francisco has long been characterized as the "most childless major city" in the U.S. due to a low proportion of children, the actual decline in raw numbers is minimal, not the drastic "lost half" suggested by the tweet. In fact, between 2010 and 2020, the city's overall number of residents under 18 saw a slight increase of approximately 5,700 individuals, though their proportion relative to the total population decreased as adult populations grew faster.

The figures in the tweet appear to stem from a viral, unsourced chart that has been widely debunked for presenting inaccurate data. For instance, the same chart erroneously claimed Austin's 0-4 population increased by 98%, when reliable data showed an 11% rise. Similarly, it overstated San Francisco's decline. The disparity highlights the importance of distinguishing between city-specific data and broader metropolitan statistical area trends, as well as verifying information from reputable sources like the U.S. Census Bureau. High costs of living and housing affordability remain significant drivers influencing where families choose to reside in both regions.