China's Fertility Rate Hits Record Low of 1.0, Deepening Demographic Crisis

China's demographic landscape is facing an increasingly "bleak" outlook, particularly concerning intelligence and fertility in its provinces, according to a recent assessment by researcher Emil Kirkegaard. In a social media post, Kirkegaard highlighted these trends, pointing to a complex interplay of factors driving significant population challenges across the nation. His analysis aligns with broader concerns among demographers regarding China's rapidly declining birth rates and accelerating population aging.

Official data indicates China's total fertility rate (TFR) has plummeted to a record low of 1.0 children per woman in 2023, a significant drop from 1.18 in 2022 and well below the 2.1 replacement level needed to maintain a stable population. This decline has intensified despite the government's relaxation of long-standing birth restrictions, including the introduction of a two-child policy in 2016 and a three-child policy in 2021. Experts note that these policy shifts have largely failed to reverse the downward trend, with annual births continuing to fall, reaching 9.02 million in 2023.

The demographic shift is also marked by rapid aging. China became an "aged society" by 2022, with over 14% of its population aged 65 or older, and is projected to become a "super-aged society" by 2033. This means the proportion of those aged 65 and above will exceed 20%. The proportion of the population aged 60 and older increased from 13.50% in 2020 to 19.8% in 2022. This rapid aging, coupled with a shrinking working-age population, poses substantial economic and social challenges.

Several factors contribute to this persistent low fertility. High costs associated with raising children, particularly in urban areas, are a major deterrent. Changing social norms, with more women prioritizing education and career development, also lead to delayed marriages and childbearing. The legacy of the one-child policy has influenced perceptions, with many single-child adults opting for smaller families themselves.

The implications of these demographic trends are far-reaching. A shrinking workforce and an increasing old-age dependency ratio will strain China's social safety nets, healthcare systems, and economic growth potential. While the government is implementing measures to support childbearing and elderly care, the deep-seated societal and economic factors driving these changes present an uphill battle for reversing the "bleak" outlook described by researchers like Kirkegaard.