Expert Questions Decline in 'Moving' Data, Citing Current Population Survey Measurement Errors

Washington D.C. – A recent assertion by economist Jack Landry has brought renewed attention to the reliability of "moving" data derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Landry suggests that observed declines in population mobility may not reflect actual trends but rather stem from inherent issues within the survey's methodology.The Current Population Survey, a joint effort by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is a primary source for critical labor force statistics and demographic information. However, like many household surveys, the CPS has faced a consistent decline in response rates over recent years, a trend acknowledged by both the Census Bureau and BLS.This drop in participation raises concerns among experts about potential measurement errors and data reliability. For instance, recent analysis by Pew Research Center indicated that a perceived downward trend in the U.S. immigrant population could be "partly artificial due to a declining survey response rate among immigrants." This highlights how underrepresentation in survey responses can distort demographic estimates.Jack Landry directly addressed this challenge on social media, stating, > "Moving likely hasn't declined at all, this is all linked to declining response rates and weird measurement error in the Current Population Survey (where the data in the chart comes from)." His comment underscores the argument that statistical anomalies, rather than genuine behavioral shifts, might be influencing reported figures on population movement.The implications of such measurement challenges extend to various economic and social analyses. Inaccurate mobility data can complicate understanding labor market dynamics, regional economic shifts, and the effectiveness of policies aimed at population distribution or integration. The U.S. Census Bureau and BLS are actively pursuing modernization efforts, including the introduction of an internet self-response option by 2027, to address declining response rates and ensure the continued quality of CPS data.