Global Fertility Rates Projected to Decline to 1.6 by 2100, Prompting Societal Reshaping

The world is on an accelerating path toward significantly lower fertility rates, a demographic shift anticipated to profoundly reconfigure global economies and societies. Recent projections indicate the global total fertility rate (TFR) is set to fall to approximately 1.8 by 2050 and 1.6 by 2100, well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to sustain population size. This trend is already linking to numerous societal challenges, a concern highlighted by commentator Andrew Arruda, who stated in a recent tweet:

"many societal problems are directly linked to dropping fertility rates and everyone having less children. with many others tied to people not raising the children that are being born properly."

The global TFR has more than halved from around five children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021, with over half of all countries already below replacement levels. Key drivers behind this decline include increased female educational attainment, greater access to contraception, and rising costs associated with raising children. Additionally, delayed marriage and first pregnancies, alongside declining child mortality rates, contribute to fewer births.

This demographic shift poses substantial economic and social challenges. An aging global population will lead to increased dependency ratios, where a smaller working-age population supports a growing number of retirees. This dynamic is expected to strain social security, healthcare systems, and overall fiscal resources, potentially leading to labor force shortages and economic stagnation in many nations.

In response, some countries are implementing pro-natal policies, such as enhanced parental leave, free childcare, and financial incentives, though experts suggest these measures may only offer a modest boost to fertility rates, rarely reaching replacement levels. Open immigration policies are also emerging as a necessary strategy for high-income countries to sustain economic growth amidst dwindling workforces. While the tweet also touches on the subjective aspect of "raising children properly," the broader discourse emphasizes the need for comprehensive societal support systems to enable families to thrive.