Historian Stephen Kotkin Explores 19th-Century Industrialization Parallels in Modern AI Competition

Princeton historian Stephen Kotkin's influential theory, which posits modernity as a direct outcome of intense geopolitical competition, is gaining renewed attention in discussions about contemporary technological races. As highlighted by podcaster Dwarkesh Patel in a recent tweet, Kotkin's work from "Stalin, Volume 1" suggests that states historically modernized their steel production, militaries, and political systems to avoid being "crushed and potentially colonized" by other great powers. This perspective challenges the notion of modernity as a purely sociological evolution.

Kotkin's core argument emphasizes a brutal, unsentimental international order where nations were compelled to match rivals in key attributes of modernity. Failure to do so, he argues, often resulted in subjugation. This historical lens examines how countries like late 19th-century Russia felt immense pressure to industrialize, drawing parallels to Germany's advancements, to secure their survival and standing on the global stage.

Patel, who recently interviewed Kotkin for an upcoming podcast episode, extended this historical framework to current global dynamics, particularly the burgeoning competition in artificial intelligence. He questioned whether the incentive to remain at the technological frontier has diminished today, given that traditional wars of colonization and territorial conquest are largely considered unthinkable in many parts of the world. Patel specifically cited a hypothetical scenario where "if Germany falls behind in AI, France will [not] invade them."

The discussion further delves into whether overwhelming geopolitical pressures might accelerate the adoption of leading-edge technologies like AI, potentially overriding domestic opposition to displacement and automation. Patel's inquiry challenged the conventional view that regulatory or political barriers to AI adoption might be overrated. He drew a direct parallel, asking if America would feel compelled to race on AI against China in the same manner that late 19th-century Russia was driven to industrialize against Germany.

Kotkin's framework offers a compelling lens through which to analyze the drivers of technological advancement and national development in an increasingly interconnected yet competitive world. The upcoming podcast episode promises to provide deeper insights into these critical questions, examining whether historical imperatives continue to shape the future of global power and technological innovation.