New York Sees 4.64 Million Net Outmigration Over Three Decades, Destinations Concentrated on Eastern Seaboard

New York State has experienced a significant net outmigration of approximately 4.64 million residents over the past 30 years, a trend highlighted in recent social media discussions. The substantial outflow has seen a majority of former New Yorkers relocating to states primarily along the Eastern seaboard, with Florida and New Jersey absorbing nearly half of these moves. Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina have also attracted a considerable number of individuals departing the Empire State.

Data from the New York State Department of Taxation and Finance indicates a consistent pattern of out-of-state transitions, with the most recent IRS state-to-state migration tally for 2021-2022 showing a net outflow of 107,798 tax returns. While this figure represents an improvement from the peak of 142,000 in 2020-2021, the state has consistently seen more residents leave than arrive for decades. The Fiscal Policy Institute notes that New York's population growth typically relies on natural increase and international immigration, as it generally experiences net domestic outmigration.

Recent Census data, updated in December 2024, suggests a nuanced picture, with New York's population growing by 130,000 between July 2023 and 2024, and net outmigration in 2024 reaching its lowest level since 2013. This recent growth is largely attributed to international immigration, which has significantly offset domestic population losses. The Brookings Institution further emphasizes that international migration drove the population rebound in major metro areas, including New York, in 2023-2024.

The primary drivers behind this long-term outmigration often include affordability challenges, particularly housing and childcare costs, which disproportionately affect low and middle-income households. The National Taxpayers Union Foundation highlights that states with high tax burdens, like New York, tend to lose taxpayers and tax revenue to states with lower tax obligations. For instance, between 2011 and 2021, New York lost an estimated $111 billion in net adjusted gross income due to interstate migration.

Despite recent signs of slowing outmigration and population gains from international arrivals, the enduring pattern of domestic relocation from New York continues to shape its demographic and economic landscape. The tweet from "Hunter📈🌈📊" accurately captured the magnitude of this long-term shift, stating, > "New York is the other big state that's seen massive outmigration, a net 4.64M in the last 30 years. Here's where New Yorkers have moved. Mostly the Eastern seaboard. FL and NJ combined account for nearly half of the moves, and CT, PA, and NC also picked up healthy numbers."