Global Liver Cancer Cases Projected to Double by 2050, Over 60% Preventable

Global health experts warn that new cases of liver cancer are projected to nearly double by 2050, reaching over 1.5 million annually, up from approximately 870,000 in 2022. This alarming forecast, highlighted in recent studies published in The Lancet and JAMA Network Open, underscores an urgent need for intervention, as a significant majority of these cases are considered preventable.

Liver cancer currently stands as the sixth most common cancer and the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide, with approximately 865,269 new cases and 757,948 deaths recorded in 2022. Projections indicate that if current trends persist, annual new cases could surge to 1.52 million by 2050, representing a 76% increase in incidence and an 80.8% increase in associated deaths. This rise is primarily driven by global population aging and growth, alongside increased exposure to key risk factors.

Samuel Hume, in a recent social media post, emphasized the high preventability of liver cancer, stating:

"Liver cancer is expected to almost double between now and 2050 – but most cases are preventable. Hepatitis B: preventable. Hepatitis C: preventable. Alcohol: preventable. Obesity/metabolic dysfunction (MASH): preventable." This aligns with findings from a Lancet Commission report, which estimates that at least 60% of liver cancers are avoidable through targeted management of modifiable risk factors such as Hepatitis B virus (HBV), Hepatitis C virus (HCV), excessive alcohol consumption, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), also known as MASH.

Public health experts note that achieving a sustained 2-5% annual reduction in the age-standardized incidence rate could prevent between 8.8 million and 17.3 million new cases and save approximately 7.7 million to 15.1 million lives over the next 25 years. Despite this potential, significant challenges remain. China, which bears the largest liver cancer burden, has seen only a 0.3% average annual decline between 1990 and 2021, while Europe and North America are experiencing rising incidence rates, largely due to MASLD and alcohol-associated liver disease.

While HBV remains the leading cause of liver cancer, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), driven by rising obesity and diabetes rates, is emerging as a significant and growing contributor. The Lancet Commission stresses the critical need for increased public, medical, and political awareness regarding fatty liver conditions. Intensified global efforts are urged for hepatitis vaccination drives and policies to restrict alcohol consumption to mitigate this impending health crisis and reverse the projected rise in cases.