61% of Californians Back Independent Maps, Complicating Newsom's Redistricting Plan

SACRAMENTO – Governor Gavin Newsom’s strategic move to redraw California’s congressional districts faces significant public skepticism, with a recent poll indicating strong support for the state's independent redistricting commission. This development complicates the governor's efforts to implement new maps aimed at countering Republican-led redistricting initiatives in other states, particularly Texas. The political landscape suggests an uphill battle for Newsom's proposed changes.

The governor's plan is a direct response to aggressive redistricting by Texas Republicans, who seek to gain several congressional seats in their state. Newsom has framed his initiative as a necessary countermeasure, stating, "We’re going to fight fire with fire" to neutralize what he describes as a "power grab" by former President Donald Trump and his allies. This retaliatory approach seeks to secure five to six additional Democratic-leaning seats in California.

Newsom's "gambit," as described by POLITICO, involves temporarily bypassing California's voter-approved independent Citizens Redistricting Commission. The proposal would allow the Democratic-majority state legislature to draw new congressional maps, which would then be put before voters in a special election in November 2025. These new maps would apply to the 2026, 2028, and 2030 U.S. House elections, with the independent commission system slated to be restored afterward.

However, a POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab poll reveals that 61% of Californians favor maintaining the independent commission, highlighting public wariness of lawmaker-drawn maps. This sentiment is echoed by prominent figures such as former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and financier Charles Munger Jr., who champion non-partisan redistricting and oppose Newsom's plan. Good government groups, including the League of Women Voters, have also voiced strong opposition, arguing that overriding the commission sets a dangerous precedent.

The proposed special election is projected to cost over $200 million, adding another layer of controversy to the initiative. Legal challenges are widely anticipated, and election law scholars warn that any attempt to bypass the established redistricting commission could lead to lengthy court battles. The California State Legislature is expected to reconvene on August 18, 2025, to debate the proposal, marking the next critical step in this high-stakes political maneuver.

This redistricting battle holds national implications, potentially influencing the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives in the upcoming 2026 midterms. Newsom's success in this endeavor could significantly impact his political future, as he is widely considered a potential Democratic presidential contender in 2028. The outcome in California will serve as a key indicator of how blue states plan to respond to partisan gerrymandering efforts across the country.