Alberta Separatist Group Forecasts Up to $45.5 Billion Surplus, Major Tax Cuts for Independent Province

Alberta separatist advocates, primarily the Alberta Prosperity Project, have released a fiscal plan forecasting a significant economic surplus and substantial tax cuts for an independent Alberta. The claims, highlighted in a tweet by Candice Malcolm, project billions in annual savings and revenue for the province should it separate from Canada. This comes amidst ongoing debates about Alberta's economic contributions to the federation and its desire for greater autonomy.

According to "The Value of Freedom: A Draft Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta," the Alberta Prosperity Project anticipates an annual surplus ranging from $23.6 billion to $45.5 billion within the first year of independence. The group asserts that ceasing equalization payments to the federal government would save the province between $44 billion and $47 billion. Furthermore, the plan suggests Albertans could see personal income tax reductions of 33 to 55 percent.

The fiscal blueprint also proposes transitioning to an Alberta Pension Plan, claiming the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) owes Alberta $334 billion, with an expected transfer of $167 billion by 2026. This shift, the group contends, would allow for reduced pension payments while doubling payouts. The plan additionally outlines an intent to adopt the U.S. dollar initially, before potentially introducing an Alberta-specific currency, and projects a significant increase in oil and gas production.

However, economic experts have expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility and projections of the Alberta Prosperity Project's plan. Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, noted the plan "lacks clarity" and that its figures could be an "overestimation," particularly concerning the costs of establishing new programs and institutions. University of Calgary political science professor Lisa Young also questioned whether the plan adequately accounts for "frictional costs of separation" or potential population shifts.

These separatist forecasts emerge as the current Alberta government navigates its own fiscal landscape. The provincial Budget 2025, tabled by Finance Minister Nate Horner, forecasts a $5.8 billion surplus for the nearly completed 2024/25 fiscal year, but projects a $5.2 billion deficit for 2025/26. The budget also includes a new 8 percent personal income tax bracket for income up to $60,000, effective January 1, 2025, aiming to save Albertans up to $750 annually.