Bethlehem's Christian Population Drops from 86% in 1950 to 12% by 2016 Amid Shifting Control

Bethlehem, West Bank – A recent statement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has drawn attention to the significant decline in the Christian population of Bethlehem, the traditional birthplace of Jesus. Netanyahu highlighted the demographic shift, stating, "When Bethlehem, the birthplace of Jesus, was under Israeli Control; 80% of its residents were Christian. Since the P.A took control — that number has dwindled to under 20%." This assertion underscores a complex demographic trend observed over several decades, influenced by various political and socio-economic factors.

Historically, Bethlehem maintained a substantial Christian majority. In 1947, under British rule, Christians constituted approximately 85% of the population. By 1950, this figure remained high at 86%, during a period when the city was under Jordanian administration following the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. Israel gained control of Bethlehem after the 1967 Six-Day War, maintaining military occupation until 1995.

The transfer of civil authority to the Palestinian Authority (PA) occurred in 1995 as part of the Oslo Accords. Following this transition, the Christian population continued its downward trend. By 1998, Christians made up about 40% of Bethlehem's residents. More recent statistics from 2016 indicate a further drop to approximately 12-16% of the city's population, with some 2017 census data placing it at 10%. This decline aligns with Netanyahu's observation of the number dwindling to "under 20%" since the PA assumed control.

Multiple factors are cited for the Christian exodus from Bethlehem and the wider West Bank. Economic hardship, high unemployment rates, and limited opportunities are frequently mentioned. Additionally, the impact of the Israeli occupation, including movement restrictions, the separation barrier, and access to land, has been highlighted by residents and analysts as contributing to emigration. While some reports suggest concerns about discrimination under Palestinian Authority rule, others emphasize that both Christians and Muslims face similar challenges, leading many Palestinians, regardless of faith, to seek better lives abroad.

Netanyahu's statement frames the demographic change within the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, questioning the viability of a Palestinian state given these trends. The complex interplay of historical control, ongoing political realities, and socio-economic pressures continues to shape the demographic landscape of Bethlehem, raising concerns among various stakeholders about the future of Christian communities in the Holy Land.