California's Democratic Presidential Margin Narrows to 20.2 Percentage Points in 2024 Election

A recent social media post by Shiloh Marx, stating "Gerrymandering won't stop California from flipping Red" and "The Democrats have lost California," has drawn attention to the state's evolving political landscape. While the 2024 presidential election saw a narrower victory margin for the Democratic candidate, official voter registration data and election results do not indicate a "flip" to Republican control or a loss of the state by Democrats.

California's voter registration statistics continue to show a significant Democratic plurality. As of recent reports, 46.2% of registered voters identify as Democrats, a slight increase from 45.3% in 2020. The Republican share has remained stable at 24.7%, up marginally from 23.9% in 2020. Notably, the percentage of independent voters, also known as "no party preference," has declined from 25.1% in 2020 to 21.9%.

In the 2024 presidential election, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris secured 58.5% of the vote in California, while Donald Trump received 38.3%, resulting in a 20.2 percentage point difference. This margin is narrower compared to Joe Biden's performance in 2020. Analysis of the 2024 results indicates that Trump gained support among traditionally Democratic constituencies, including Latino and Asian American voters, and saw improved performance in some areas previously considered Democratic strongholds.

Regarding the claim of "gerrymandering," California operates under an independent redistricting commission. Established by voter initiatives, this 14-member commission is designed to draw district lines for congressional and state legislative seats in a non-partisan manner, aiming to ensure fair representation and prevent political manipulation. This process is widely considered a "gold standard" for its transparency and independence.

Despite the established independent commission, Governor Gavin Newsom has recently proposed a plan to potentially put new congressional maps before voters in a special election. This move is framed as a countermeasure to perceived partisan gerrymandering efforts in other states, such as Texas. The proposal has sparked debate, with good governance groups and some Republicans opposing it, arguing it could undermine the independent commission's authority.

While the 2024 election revealed a shift in voting patterns and a reduced Democratic margin, California remains a deeply Democratic state based on voter registration and overall election outcomes. The state's political dynamics are evolving, but current data does not support the assertion that California has "flipped Red" or that Democrats have "lost" the state.