Ethington Leads Incumbent Massie by 12 Points in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Poll

A new congressional poll conducted by Kaplan as of June 24 indicates a significant lead for challenger Ethington, who registers at 31% support, over incumbent Republican Representative Thomas Massie, who stands at 19% in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District. The results, shared via a tweet from "Political Polls," suggest a notable shift in voter sentiment within the traditionally conservative district.

The Kentucky 4th Congressional District, encompassing a large portion of northeastern Kentucky and the Cincinnati suburbs, has historically been a strong Republican stronghold, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+18 or R+19. Representative Massie, a Republican, has served the district since 2012, known for his libertarian-leaning views and frequent willingness to defy party leadership, including past criticisms from former President Donald Trump.

The poll's findings come amidst a period where Massie has faced renewed scrutiny and potential primary challenges. Recent reports suggest that a political action committee, "MAGA KY," has been established to oppose Massie in the 2026 primary, with figures close to former President Trump indicating a desire to unseat him. Despite this, Massie has maintained high name recognition within the district and has historically overcome challenges.

Kaplan, the polling firm, notes that the poll was conducted on June 24, 2025. While the specific methodology for this poll was not detailed in the tweet, reputable polling firms like Kaplan typically employ rigorous methods to ensure representative samples and accurate data. The substantial lead for Ethington, if sustained, could signal a significant contest in the upcoming election cycle for a district that has consistently re-elected its Republican incumbent.