Expert Predicts "Better Than Even Odds" of Orbán's Departure in Hungary's 2026 Elections

Noted political scientist Ian Bremmer has stated there are "better than even odds that Orban is out in Hungary’s elections next year," signaling a potentially significant shift in the country's political landscape. The parliamentary elections, expected in April 2026, are shaping up to be the most competitive in over a decade, challenging Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's long-standing rule. This assessment comes amidst a backdrop of economic discontent and the rapid rise of a new opposition force.

The emergence of Péter Magyar and his Respect and Freedom (Tisza) party has dramatically reshaped Hungarian politics. Magyar, a former insider, gained prominence following a public scandal involving a presidential pardon and subsequent resignations within Orbán's Fidesz party. Tisza secured a notable 29.7% of the vote in the 2024 European Parliament elections, positioning itself as the primary challenger to Fidesz.

Recent opinion polls reflect a tightening race, with independent and opposition-aligned surveys indicating Tisza is either leading or closely competing with Fidesz. This contrasts sharply with Fidesz-aligned polls that still show the ruling party ahead, leading to accusations of bias from the newly established Sovereignty Protection Office. The shift suggests a potential end to the two-thirds parliamentary majority Fidesz has enjoyed since 2010.

Hungary's economic performance is a key factor contributing to public dissatisfaction. The country experienced stagflation in the first quarter of 2025, coupled with high inflation, the highest in the European Union. The government's optimistic 4.1% economic growth forecast for 2026 has been flagged as risky by the Fiscal Council, and the EU continues to withhold significant structural aid due to rule of law concerns.

In response to the growing challenge, the Orbán government has undertaken measures interpreted as attempts to secure its position. This includes controversial amendments to electoral constituencies and the implementation of the "Sovereignty Protection Law," which critics argue could stifle independent media and civil society. Additionally, constitutional amendments passed in April 2025, which curtail the Prime Minister's emergency powers starting in 2026, have been seen as a preparation for a potential Fidesz loss.

Concerns about the fairness and freedom of the upcoming elections are also prominent. Péter Magyar has accused Russia of election meddling in Hungary, and international observers emphasize the critical need for robust election observation. The newly enacted Sovereignty Protection Law is viewed as a potential hindrance to independent monitoring efforts, raising questions about the integrity of the electoral process.