Geopolitical Risks Threaten Decarbonization Agenda, Potentially Delaying Targets by 50 Years

Geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova has asserted that the global decarbonization agenda faces significant delays for the "unforeseeable future" due to mounting geopolitical and financial constraints. Tchakarova, a recognized expert in security and defense with over two decades of experience, shared her perspective on social media, stating, "Here‘s the message: decarbonization agenda will be postponed for the unforeseeable future due to geopolitical & financial constrains."

Recent research corroborates this outlook, indicating that geopolitical risks are actively impeding decarbonization progress across various sectors. A study published in Communications Earth & Environment found that geopolitical risks can reduce national willingness to decarbonize, particularly in global shipping, and could potentially delay the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 2050 zero-carbon target by up to five decades. This decline is attributed to a shift in national priorities from environmental goals to immediate security and economic concerns amidst global instability.

The impact of geopolitical events is evident in increased carbon emissions. Conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Red Sea crisis have forced rerouting of shipping lanes, leading to measurable increases in CO2 emissions as vessels take longer, less efficient routes. Experts note that nations with substantial maritime trade and advanced economies are more prone to prioritize economic stability over environmental objectives when faced with heightened geopolitical pressures.

Furthermore, geopolitical risk directly hinders investment in renewable energy, a critical component of decarbonization efforts. Analysis shows a negative correlation between geopolitical instability and the willingness of countries to invest in clean energy sources. This financial hesitancy, coupled with the immediate economic burdens of global crises, diverts resources and attention away from long-term climate initiatives.

Tchakarova, who founded the geopolitical consultancy FACE and previously directed the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy (AIES), frequently analyzes global geopolitical shifts and their implications. Her assessment underscores a growing consensus among experts that the current international landscape presents formidable challenges to maintaining momentum on climate action.