Hypothetical 2028 Presidential Race Sees Newsom and Incumbent VP Vance Tied at 44%

A recent social media post by analyst Adam Cochran highlighted what he described as a "wild gap" in polling between California Governor Gavin Newsom and "incumbent VP" JD Vance, despite Newsom's "only moderate" popularity and name recognition. This commentary surfaces amidst early speculation and hypothetical polling for the 2028 presidential election cycle, where both figures are emerging as potential frontrunners for their respective parties.

Governor Gavin Newsom's political standing has seen fluctuating public opinion, with some reports indicating moderate approval ratings while others suggest a surge in his favorability. According to an August 2025 Emerson College Polling national survey, Newsom leads the 2028 Democratic presidential primary field with 25% support, marking a 13-point increase since June. This surge is attributed to gains across key demographic groups, including younger and older voters, as well as Black and White demographics.

On the Republican side, the same Emerson College poll positions Vice President JD Vance as a dominant figure, securing 52% support among Republican voters in the 2028 primary. This indicates a strong base of support for Vance, who is identified as the incumbent Vice President in the context of the 2028 projections. His significant lead within his party underscores his potential as a formidable presidential candidate.

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup for the 2028 presidency, the Emerson College survey revealed a statistical tie between Vice President Vance and Governor Newsom, both garnering 44% support. This specific data point directly contrasts with the "wild gap" suggested by Cochran, indicating a closely contested race should these two figures face off. Twelve percent of voters remained undecided in this early projection.

The early polling data offers a glimpse into the potential dynamics of the 2028 presidential election, far ahead of any official campaigns. While Newsom's overall popularity and name recognition may be perceived as moderate by some, his performance in hypothetical matchups suggests a competitive national profile. The close contest between Vance and Newsom highlights the evolving political landscape and the early positioning of potential candidates.